> Dear All, > > I just reached the opposite conclusion, that Mr. Watanabe's prediction > has NOT materialized. Maximum brightness of V1494 Aql was about 4.0 on > December 3; now (almost 13 days later) it is about 6.5. Actually, half > an hour ago I estimated it 6.4. > Not that this all will seriously affect science I think, because his > prediction was probably based on some empirical model with t3's of many > other bright novae... > > Best regards, > Reinder Bouma > > --------------------------------------------------- > Reinder J. Bouma email: rjbouma@wxs.nl > Bekemaheerd 77 or: rjbouma@planet.nl > 9737PR Groningen > The Netherlands phone: +31 (0)50-5418227 > --------------------------------------------------- Dear Reinder and other chatters, First, I've seen estimates of the peak of V1494 Aql brighter than mV=4. In addition, since t3 of novae can be as short as ~3 days, and as long as a few hundreds of days, I consider the prediction successful, even if the final value will be ~15 days. Anyway, it is interesting to understand the idea behind the prediction. Regards, Alon ----------------------------------------------------------------------- Dr. Alon Retter Tl. (work) +44-(0)1782-58-3493 Physics Dept. Fax (work) +44-(0)1782-711093 Keele University ----------------------------------- Staffordshire 'As a scientist I don't believe myself, so ST5 5BG, U.K. why should I believe you?' (A.R. 1965-2085) -----------------------------------------------------------------------