[vsnet-obs 38680] Re: delay of outburst fade

[Taichi Kato <tkato@kusastro.kyoto-u.ac.jp>]

Re: delay of outburst fade

   I have my own psychological explanation.  Please consider or criticize it.

   Many of "Ripero Delay"-type phenomena appear when there was a gap
of observations for a few to several days.  See:

AH Her:

  20000911.812   118  (Eddy Muyllaert)
  20000912.812   118  (Pavol A. Dubovsky)
  20000912.817   119  (Eddy Muyllaert)
  20000912.857   118  (Gary Poyner)
  20000913.110   118  (Mike Simonsen)
  20000913.844   120  (Eddy Muyllaert)
  20000913.844   120  (Maciej Reszelski)
  20000914.817   124  (Eddy Muyllaert)
  20000914.819   117  (Michel Verdenet)
  20000914.853   123  (Maciej Reszelski)
  20000915.819   119  (Michel Verdenet)
  20000915.875   125  (Jose Ripero)          ***
  20000916.869   122  (Michel Verdenet)
  20000917.078   128  (Mike Simonsen)
  20000917.810   127  (Michel Verdenet)
  20000917.876   127  (Maciej Reszelski)
  20000918.801   133: (Eddy Muyllaert)
  20000918.830   134  (Michel Verdenet)
  20000919.080   133  (Mike Simonsen)
  20000919.803   135  (Georg Comello)
  20000920.800   139  (Eddy Muyllaert)
  20000920.828   124  (Jose Ripero)          ***
  20000920.832   139  (Gary Poyner)
  20000921.833   140  (Maciej Reszelski)
  20000921.874   141  (Eddy Muyllaert)
  20000922.113   142  (Mike Simonsen)
  20000922.860   142  (Gilles Guzman)

AY Lyr:

  20000729.626  <136  (Hiroyuki Maehara)
  20000729.944  <153  (Christopher P. Jones)
  20000730.029  <148  (Marc Biesmans)
  20000730.551   136  (Seiichi Sakuma)
  20000730.551   136  (Seiichi Sakuma)
  20000730.556   131  (Hiroyuki Maehara)
  20000730.890   137  (Michel Verdenet)
  20000730.899   132  (Eddy Muyllaert)
  20000730.901   134  (Jose Ripero)          ***
  20000730.930   135  (Michel Verdenet)
  20000731.594   133  (Seiichi Sakuma)
  20000731.880   137  (Michel Verdenet)
  20000731.894   138  (Eddy Muyllaert)
  20000731.930   136  (Timo Kinnunen)
  20000731.960   138  (Gilles Guzman)
  20000731.978   139  (Maciej Reszelski)
  20000801.065   141  (Gary Poyner)
  20000801.580   139  (Seiichi Sakuma)
  20000801.601  <136  (Hiroyuki Maehara)
  20000801.860  <150  (Michel Verdenet)
  20000801.885   145: (Pavol A. Dubovsky)
  20000801.910   142  (Timo Kinnunen)
  20000801.910  <142  (Eddy Muyllaert)
  20000801.917   155  (Christopher P. Jones)
  20000801.923   150  (Maciej Reszelski)
  20000801.935   152  (Gary Poyner)
  20000801.964   142: (Hazel McGee)
  20000802.556  <139  (Seiichi Sakuma)
  20000802.881   134  (Jose Ripero)          ***
  20000802.907  <142  (Eddy Muyllaert)
  20000802.924  <142  (Pavol A. Dubovsky)
  20000802.998  <154  (Maciej Reszelski)

   The same is true for the recent U Gem case.

   From these and other circumstances, I suspected that Ripero unconsciously
assumed (or expected) the same magnitude done in the most immediate past.
This assumption or expectation must have partly been corrected by actual
observations.  This "mental approximation or extrapolation" would work
efficiently provided observations are made on successive nights, but would 
sometimes fail when the variable suddenly fades during the gap of
observations.  This scenerio would explain the apparent lack of uncertain
or doubtful sightings before the outburst rise.  I suspect that the
"sudden fade of V705 Cas" can be explained by the same mechanism.

Regards,
Taichi Kato

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