[vsnet-chat 2450] Re: [vsnet-future 5] prediction of t3 of V1494Aql

[Alon Retter <ar@astro.keele.ac.uk>]

> Dear All,
> 
> I just reached the opposite conclusion, that Mr. Watanabe's prediction
> has NOT materialized. Maximum brightness of V1494 Aql was about 4.0 on
> December 3; now (almost 13 days later) it is about 6.5. Actually, half
> an hour ago I estimated it 6.4.
> Not that this all will seriously affect science I think, because his
> prediction was probably based on some empirical model with t3's of many
> other bright novae...
> 
> Best regards,
> Reinder Bouma
>  
> ---------------------------------------------------
> Reinder J. Bouma          email: rjbouma@wxs.nl
> Bekemaheerd 77               or: rjbouma@planet.nl
> 9737PR Groningen
> The Netherlands           phone: +31 (0)50-5418227
> ---------------------------------------------------

Dear Reinder and other chatters,

First, I've seen estimates of the peak of V1494 Aql brighter than mV=4.
In addition, since t3 of novae can be as short as ~3 days, and as long 
as a few hundreds of days, I consider the prediction successful, even if
the final value will be ~15 days.
Anyway, it is interesting to understand the idea behind the prediction.

Regards,
Alon
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    Dr. Alon Retter         Tl. (work)     +44-(0)1782-58-3493
    Physics Dept.           Fax  (work)     +44-(0)1782-711093
    Keele University        -----------------------------------
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