[vsnet-chat 2449] Re: [vsnet-future 5] prediction of t3 of V1494 Aql

[reinder j bouma <rjbouma@wxs.nl>]

Alon Retter wrote:
> 
> Dear Dr. Watanabe,
> 
> It seems that your prediction has become true, and t3 of V1494 Aql
> is about 13 days. Congratulations!
> 
> Could you share with us, please, the way you predicted this value?
> 
> Regards,
> Alon
> -------------------------------------------------------------------------
>    Dr. Alon Retter         Tl. (work)     +44-(0)1782-58-3493
>    Physics Dept.           Fax  (work)     +44-(0)1782-711093
>    Keele University        -----------------------------------
>    Staffordshire           'As a scientist I don't believe myself, so
>    ST5 5BG, U.K.            why should I believe you?' (A.R. 1965-2085)
> -------------------------------------------------------------------------
> On Sun, 5 Dec 1999, Taichi Kato wrote:
> 
> > prediction of t3 of V1494 Aql
> >
> >     Tsutomu Watanabe (VSOLJ) has made another challenging prediction.
> >
> >     His prediction of the t3 of V1494 Aql will be 10-13 d.
> >
> > Regards,
> > Taichi Kato
> >
> >

Dear All,

I just reached the opposite conclusion, that Mr. Watanabe's prediction
has NOT materialized. Maximum brightness of V1494 Aql was about 4.0 on
December 3; now (almost 13 days later) it is about 6.5. Actually, half
an hour ago I estimated it 6.4.
Not that this all will seriously affect science I think, because his
prediction was probably based on some empirical model with t3's of many
other bright novae...

Best regards,
Reinder Bouma
 
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Reinder J. Bouma          email: rjbouma@wxs.nl
Bekemaheerd 77               or: rjbouma@planet.nl
9737PR Groningen
The Netherlands           phone: +31 (0)50-5418227
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