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The RXTE X-ray lightcurve of Eta Car through May 5 is available at http://lheawww.gsfc.nasa.gov/users/corcoran/eta_car/etacar_rxte_lightcurve/ The last few X-ray peaks are separated by about 22-23 days. The most recent peak occurred on May 3, so the next peak (should it occur) would occur on May 25-26. Extrapolating from the trends in the amplitudes of the last few peaks, the amplitude of the next peak should be about 37 cts/s in PCU2. Presumably this would be the last peak prior to the decline to minimum. If the decline to minimum occurs at the same rate as last time, then the X-ray minimum should occur on July 11, 2003 Alternatively, if the May 3 peak is the last one prior to the decline to minimum, then the decline of the X-ray rate is much steeper than last cycle, and minimum should occur at phi=0.985=May 25, 2003. So we should be at either a maximum or a minimum near May 25 see http://lheawww.gsfc.nasa.gov/users/corcoran/eta_car/2003.5/index.html#annotated_lc for a figure which may help clarify the situation cheers Mike -- *********************************************************** Dr. Michael F. Corcoran Universities Space Research Association High Energy Astrophysics Science Archive Research Center Goddard Space Flight Center Greenbelt, MD 20771 301-286-5576 (office) 301-286-1684 (fax) corcoran@barnegat.gsfc.nasa.gov http://lheawww.gsfc.nasa.gov/users/corcoran/bio.html ***********************************************************
Return to the Powerful Daisaku Nogami
vsnet-adm@kusastro.kyoto-u.ac.jp
