[vsnet-chat 550] Eta Carinae: Will it brighten-up this December?

[Toshihito Ishida <ishida@nhao.go.jp>]

Dear Colleagues, 

As you might know well,  Eta Carinae experienced once a tremendous 
bright state on 1843.  Although its recent magnitude is around 6mag,  
it still exhibits (minor) flaring up sometimes.  I'd like to call your 
attentions to this unique star again, because there is a prediction 
that this star may show the next bright-up on December 1997.  

In ApJ vol. 460, L43-L52, 1997, Damineli reported that there exists 
a correlation between bright-up and spectral features in Eta Carinae, 
and also pointed out that recent spectral feature of this star indicates 
that the next bright-up seems to occur in near future.  In this letter, 
December 1997 is suggested as the date of the next bright-up.  It is also 
mentioned that the cycle of minor bright-up is about 5 years.  

( I'm not sure about details of this paper, because I read this paper 
  about a year ago, and I have forgotten most of all! :-< )

I cannot check the recent light curve of Eta Carinae on vsnet web site, 
because my computer network environment is poor.  I believe that this 
star is still not experienced the next brightening from Damineli's letter.  
Am I right?  If so,  please take your attention to this unique star for 
next several months,  because if Damineli's prediction is confirmed to be 
right, we may get a physical insight for the mechanism of minor bright-ups 
from details of the temporal behavior from the spectral features.  

I'm afraid that the mechanism of the major bright-up on 1843 may not be 
the same as that of the minor one.  However, although they might not the 
same,  we will get information on the present status of this star.  
And from this information, we may get a new insight to the major bright-up, 
and we may make a prediction which star will be "the next Eta Carinae".   

Sincerely, 

-- 
%  Toshihito ISHIDA, Ph. D., Astrophysicist
%  Nishi-Harima Astronomical Observatory, Sayo-cho, Hyogo 679-53, JAPAN
%  Tel: +81-790-82-3886 ext. 142 Telefax: +81-790-82-3514
%  e-mail: ishida@nhao.go.jp(office) HQA01560@niftyserve.or.jp(private)

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